题  目：Quantifying the Temperature Effects on China’s Total Agricultural Output and Farmer Adaptation

报告人：陈晓光  西南财经大学教授

时  间：2019年9月20日（周五）上午8:50

地  点：教四楼B307

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报告内容提要：

We pair a novel county-level panel of annual agricultural production with daily weather outcomes from 1995 to 2015 to measure the effects of temperature fluctuations on total agricultural output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing in China. We find that the total agricultural output declines 9.4-10.5% for each 1°C increase in average summer temperature and that each additional day with daily average temperatures above 30°C reduces output by 0.4%. Higher summer temperature reduces output mainly through its negative impact on agricultural total factor productivity. We find suggestive evidence of agricultural adaptation to a warming climate. China’s aggregate agricultural output is projected to fall annually by 10.2-18.0% during the mid-21st century under the warming scenarios considered by the global climate model UKMO-HadCM3, equivalent to a monetary loss of CNY 492.6-869.4 billion in 2015 values.